BY Steve Rudman 06:30AM 11/18/2014

Slice it, dice it, Seahawks chances are grim

With five division games remaining, Seattle still has math on its side. But history works against the Seahawks, who wouldn’t be a playoff team if the season ended today.

Kam Chancellor and the Seahawks couldn’t contain Kansas City’s running game Sunday in a 24-20 loss to the Chiefs. / Drew Sellers, Sportspress Northwest

With their series of fourth-down failures Sunday in Kansas City, the Seahawks have placed themselves in an almost – but not quite – unique (also dire) position among defending Super Bowl champions. More on that tickler later.

First, at 6-4, the Seahawks stand three games behind the Arizona Cardinals (9-1) in the NFC West.

Since the Seahawks will confront the Cardinals twice in the season’s remaining weeks, including Sunday at CenturyLink Field (1:05 p.m. on FOX), and also face 6-4 San Francisco twice (as well as Philadelphia and St. Louis), they mathematically still have an opportunity to win the division, or position themselves for a playoff run.

Good luck with that. Arizona has reeled off six wins in a row. After starting 4-4, the 49ers have won two in a row. Seattle has to face the Eagles in Philadelphia. St. Louis has already defeated Seattle and Sunday held Peyton Manning and the Broncos to a touchdown in a 22-7 win. If the playoffs started today, the Seahawks would be preparing for next spring’s draft.

On the other hand, if the Seahawks win out, they will finish 12-4, a game worse than their 13-3 mark last year, which was good enough to edge the 49ers (12-4) in the NFC West race. A 12-4 record might be good enough to win the division this year.

But while the math still adds up for the Seahawks, they are in no condition either in terms of talent or health to make much hay over the final six weeks. History also trumps their chances.

Since 2002, when the Seahawks moved from the AFC West to the NFC West, there have been 96 division races spread across both conferences. The leaders entering Week 11 (Arizona in the NFC West), have gone on to win division championships 86 times – 89.5 percent. So scratch any home-field advantage, even if the Seahawks reach the postseason.

Ominously for this year’s Seahawks, every NFC West team since 2002 that led at the Week 11 mark went on to claim the division title, including six editions of the Seahawks: 2004 (6-4 at Week 11 to a 9-7 finish), 2005 (8-2 to 13-3), 2006 (6-4 to 9-7), 2007 (6-4 to 10-6), 2010 (5-5 to 7-9), 2013 (9-1 to 13-3).

The following (out of 96) division races were the exceptions, where the leader entering Week 11 failed to hold first place:

Year Division Week 11 Final Playoffs
2002 AFC East Mia 6-4 NYJ 9-7 Miami missed; Jets lost divisional round
2002 AFC West Den 7-3 Oak 11-5 Broncos missed; Oakland lost SB
2003 NFC North Minn 6-4 GB 10-6 Vikings missed; Pack lost division round
2006 NFC East Dal 6-4 Phil 10-6 Dallas lost WC; Eagles lost div. round
2008 AFC East NYJ 7-3 Mia 11-5 Jets missed; Dolphins lost WC round
2008 AFC West Den 6-4 SD 8-8 Broncos missed; SD lost div. round
2011 AFC West Oak 6-4 Den 8-8 Raiders missed; Denver lost div. round
2012 NFC East NYG 6-4 Wash 10-6 Giants missed; Redskins lost WC
2013 NFC North Chic 6-4` GB 8-7-1 Bears missed; Packers lost WC
2013 NFC South NO 8-2 Car 12-4 NO and Car both lost in division round

With five division games remaining, the Seahawks could, if healthy, join the list. But . . . no team that trailed a division leader by as many as three games entering Week 11 rebounded to finish in the first place.

In fact, only two – 2008 San Diego Chargers (AFC West) and 2012 Washington Redskins (NFC East) – even made up a two-game deficit to win a division race. The Chargers lost in the divisional round of the playoffs, and the Redskins were bounced by the Seahawks in the NFC wild card game.

Seattle’s 6-4 record can also be viewed through this nutshell:

  • Since 2002, 60 teams sported a 6-4 record entering Week 11.
  • 30 of the 60 missed the playoffs.
  • 19 lost in the wild card round.
  • 5 lost in the divisional round.
  • 4 lost a conference championship game.
  • 1 (Oakland in 2002) lost the Super Bowl.
  • 1 (New York Giants in 2011) won the Super Bowl.

To paraphrase Lloyd McClendon: No ice cream for the Seahawks this year.

Good news, bad news

The good: By rushing for 204 yards at Kansas City Sunday, as an encore to their 350 last week against the New York Giants, the Seahawks matched the franchise record for consecutive 200-yard team rushing games, done twice previously.

Seattle further matched the club mark for most total rushing yards in those games with 554, also the Seahawks’ total in games Dec. 9 and Dec. 16, 2012. A minimum of 200 yards rushing in consecutive games:

Year Date Opp. Yards W/L Leaders
1993 Dec. 19 AZ 212 L 30-27 C. Warren 168, R. Mirer 18
1993 Dec. 26 Pitt 267 W 16-6 J. Vaughn 131, J. Williams 86
Total 479
2012 Dec. 9 AZ 284 W 58-0 M. Lynch 128, R. Turbin 108
2012 Dec. 16 Buff 270 W 50-17 M. Lynch 113, R. Wilson 92
Total 554
2014 Nov. 9 NYG 350 W 38-17 M. Lynch 140, R. Wilson 107
2014 Nov. 16 KC 204 L 24-20 M. Lynch 124, R. Wilson 71
Total 554

The bad: In their history, the Seahawks have rushed for 200 or more yards in a game 44 times. Only five times, including Sunday, did they fail to win. Two of the five defeats, Dec. 19, 1993 vs Arizona (30-27), and Oct. 29, 1995, also vs. the Cardinals (20-14), came in overtime.

Prior to Sunday, according to Elias Sports Bureau, a defending Super Bowl champion gained 200 or more rushing yards in a game 95 times. The Seahawks not only became the 96th, but the first since the 1985 San Francisco 49ers to lose such a game. That 49ers team actually lost two that year, including a 28-21 loss to Minnesota (49ers rushed for 217 yards), whose defensive backs were coached by Pete Carroll.

KC’s Charles joins all-opponent team

Aside from their three fourth-quarter flops on fourth down, the Seahawks lost Sunday because they couldn’t contain Jamaal Charles, who ran for 159 yards and Kansas City’s first two touchdowns.

Charles ran for 173 yards and a TD in a 42-24 victory over the Seahawks Nov. 8, 2010, and is now one of three opposing backs with two games of 150 or more rushing yards against Seattle. Denver’s Terrell Davis had a pair in 1998, and San Francisco’s Frank Gore exceeded 200 yards in 2006 and 2009.


  • jafabian

    I didn’t foresee this kind of a season happening to the Hawks, but then no one could foretell what happened with Percy Harvin and the effect his departure would have. If the 49ers end up staying ahead of the Hawks and make the playoffs over them that could save Jim Harbaugh’s job in SF. I thought they’d win the division with an 11-5 record and at least get to the NFC Championship. The drive isn’t what it was last year though.

    If anything, maybe some humble pie is needed and an early vacation for some reflection for some in the organization. I still think they can turn things around though.

    • mtd9904

      Sounds like Harbaugh is gone regardless of what the 49ers do (which IMO would be a mistake for the 49ers since they hadn’t done much for nearly a decade before he came).

  • RunningRoy

    Note in the first line of Steve’s chart above that in 2002 the Jets overtook the Dolphins to win the AFC East. That’s right, the Patriots missed the playoffs the year after they won their first Super Bowl (2001). Somehow they bounced back to do alright, winning the next two Super Bowls (2003-04).

  • 1coolguy

    I hate your stats but unfortunately they do not bode well for the Hawks. Too many injuries this year after losing key people to FA. Of 22 starters in the SB they have lost a total of at least 9.

  • HawksFan

    Why is everyone in doubt of the Hawks? We may not have the best defense like last year, or be that same team that everyone wants us to be, we may not Tate, Bryant, or Clemens but we still find ways to win and yet people doubt us. We will do good, no matter what anyone says. #GoHawks