A computer simulation thinks the Mariners are going to make it all the way to the World Series, then lose to the Washington Nationals. What do you think?
The rotation appears set. The position battles are about over. The crowded bullpen, it seems, will sort itself out when the roster is whittled to 25.
Since the April 6 season opener against the Los Angeles Angels at Safeco Field draws near, it’s time to offer up predictions for the Seattle Mariners 2015 season.
Ready to buy in? Hop on the bandwagon? Perhaps break out some teal? Etc. etc.
A number of national media outlets are choosing the Mariners to make a deep run in the playoffs. Computer simulations are optimistic, too.
Earlier this month, PredictionMachine.com, which “strives to be the most accurate and trusted source for predicting sports outcomes,” released results that simulated the 2015 MLB season 50,000 times using its “Predictalator.”
The loaded Washington Nationals win the World Series a league-high 16.4 percent of the time, the Los Angeles Dodgers come in second at 11.7 percent and the Mariners finish third with a 9.8 percent chance. The St. Louis Cardinals are the fourth-likeliest team to win it all (9.7 percent) and the Boston Red Sox are fifth (8.2 percent).
According to the forecast, no team has a greater than one-in-six chance of winning the World Series and 17 teams have a better than one percent chance.
That parity apparently is good news for the Mariners, who have a 67.6 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to the website.
It also projects that the Mariners will win the American League West, beat the Kansas City Royals in the ALDS, then top the Red Sox in the ALCS, before losing to the Nationals in the World Series. Seattle is ranked fifth in the site’s power rankings.
Here’s a breakdown of the site’s playoff projections. This exact scenario, it should be noted, occurred 211 times of the 50,000 simulated seasons.
Wild card: Los Angeles over Cleveland
Divisional: Boston over Los Angeles
Divisional: Seattle over Kansas City
League: Seattle over Boston
Wild card: Pittsburgh over San Francisco
Divisional: Washington over Pittsburgh
Divisional: Los Angeles over St. Louis
League: Washington over Los Angeles
Washington Nationals over Seattle Mariners
If that sounds far-fetched, know this: The Prediction Machine was created by University of Cincinnati professor Paul Bessire, a statistician and veteran sportswriter.
It plays out each team’s regular season and potentially postseason schedule individually 50,000 times, taking into account factors such as player statistics, roles, health, playing time, managerial styles and ballpark effects.
The site describes the methodology:
“In general, we apply ballpark and level-adjusted, relevant statistics from every game a player has played in his professional career to a fairly traditional player development curve that considers age and previous playing time.Not only does this curve help to set average inputs, it combines with health and dictates the variance (boom or bust potential) of a player’s inputs.”
Convinced yet? Time to take on the Predictalator.