In trying to work up a justification for attempting the hire of a very good but very expensive and 32-year-old player for the Seahawks’ third receiver spot — more than a hood ornament, but closer to heated leather seats — I recalled a response by Pete Carroll last week that seemed to escape attention.
Answering a question about how Shane Waldron’s ideas were being integrated into the offense at this Zoom-only early stage, the Seahawks coach was enthusiastic about his new offensive coordinator’s plans (if Carroll were otherwise, the news would have been bigger than peanut butter divorcing chocolate, but still . . . ).
“In the design of it, there’s a sense of continuity to it that Shane brings that I’m really excited about,” he said. “Things fit together in a connected fashion more so than I’ve seen us have in years past.
“Shane also brings a real eye, and an intent, on utilizing tempo in different aspects of our game, which is really something we always like to implement with Russ. Russ has taken to it as well at this point. So we’re off and moving.”
Russ is, of course, Russell Wilson, he of the temporarily disenchanted quarterback persuasion. Tempo is, of course, up-tempo, a part of the offense in which Wilson excels.
So much so that, in his agonizing post-game interview following the Rams’ 30-20 win Jan. 9 that booted the Seahawks from the playoffs, Wilson twice mentioned the absence of tempo in the playcalling as a problem in the failure to outscore a busted-up Jared Goff in his second-to-last game as Rams QB.
“I think our tempo, our pace, getting in and out and all that, we kind of lost that a little bit,” he said. “I think that’s something that we do really, really well, and so to keep that tempo and pace I think is something that’s . . . I’m going to really try to study a lot this off-season and see how do we continue to put our foot on the gas.”
A few moments later, in a response to a question about the Rams defense, he said, “They fear our pace, the tempo, and all that. I think that I feel when the game is on the line, two minutes in the game or whatever, teams obviously fear that because of the feeling of me going and all that stuff.
“The game felt really stale, in a way. We were kind of flat-lined.”
In covering Wilson for his tenure in Seattle, I don’t call him criticizing any aspect of the team’s play beyond bland generalities. Even this critique wasn’t that specific, but it was a clear diagnosis of where he thought the playcalling fell short.
Less than two days later, OC Brian Schottenheimer was fired.
While I can’t prove cause and effect, I’d want Wilson’s quotes in the report from the medical examiner regarding probable cause of Schottenheimer’s Seattle career death.
But Carroll’s remarks last week sound as if Waldron has made the head coach see the light regarding tempo. Saying and doing are, of course, two different things. But at least Carroll is on the record saying up-tempo is a weapon Wilson executes well and is being emblazoned into the playbook.
Which gets us to the latest of the off-season dramas: Why would the Seahawks consider a potentially reckless trade for WR Julio Jones, who, despite his splendid career — his 95 yards-per-game average is the highest receiver total in NFL history — would be the third receiver behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, while he’s due a guaranteed $15.3 million in 2021?
Easy answer.
Waldron and Carroll want to hear the shouts of “WTF!” coming out of the opposing pressbox suite from defensive coaches when Wilson goes to a two-minute offense featuring receivers Metcalf, Lockett and Jones.
It will be called the Depends formation, for the product necessary to be worn while defending it.
The beauty of going up-tempo is that defenders can’t be subbed. If Wilson strings shorter, in-bounds completions, the clock doesn’t stop for substitutions. Three, four or five plays in, at least one in this sub-4.4-second crew goes long, then another, then another. Somewhere in this portfolio of fear and fatigue is an easy six points.
Followers of Wilson’s post-season lamentations know he complained about poor pass protection (any who disagree, raise a hand . . . I thought so), wanted more say in personnel (10 years in, he gets a vote, OK?) and the seasonal decline in risk-taking with the pass game (defenses made you out, Russ).
But Wilson knew right after the playoff loss what he thought the offense needed. To get to up-tempo, the Seahawks hired Wilson a big upgrade at left guard (Gabe Jackson), an upgrade at tight end (Gerald Everett), a return of RB Chris Carson and the hire of a coordinator right out of the Hogwarts Department of Bamboozlement, Chicanery and Invisibility.
The one thing the remodel lacks, after the free agency departure of the earnest but modestly talented David Moore, is a proven third wideout. The Seahawks did well by using their second-round pick on WR Dee Eskridge. But he’s a rookie, and may not be a full contributor until December.
The Seahawks are all about the Here-and-Damn-Now.
I will suspend for this column the financial discussion of the potential Jones hire, simply because the NFL’s own estimate of the 2022 salary cap ceiling is $208.2 million, or about $30 million more than this year’s $182.5 million. Since GM John Schneider has kicked so many cans down the salary-cap road to fit in upgrades around Wilson’s $34 million bulge, I will trust him to find coin for Jones from hidey-holes in kitchen cupboards and basement Mason jars.
With the money issue marginalized, the big remaining risk becomes the heavy investment in a 32-year-old. My one retort is a comparable: Longtime Seahawks nemesis Larry Fitzgerald of Arizona.
In his age-32 season, he had 109 catches.
In his age-33 season, he had 107 catches.
In his age-34 season, he had 109 catches.
As Seattle fans know, at least 100 of them seemed to come against the Seahawks.
Not saying Fitzgerald and Jones are the same guy. What I am saying is there’s recent precedent the Seahawks know well.
If you need a final observation, we offer up Mr. Impartial.
“I think we’re going to be improved in all aspects of (the offense),” Carroll said. “I’m really fired up about it.”
That was before the news developed about the Seahawks’ interest in talking with the cap-strapped Atlanta Falcons.
So yes, I have worked up a justification for the Seahawks’ pursuit of Julio Jones. If the deal happens, give credit where due. Wilson mentioned it Jan. 9. Many of us missed it; Carroll too.
He caught up quickly. He’s eager to hear the screams.
48 Comments
Good arguments, Art. There’s a lot of “mortgaging the future” talk that I’ve read elsewhere that concerns me…and the Hawks have already done a lot of mortgaging. But an up-tempo Lockett-Metcalf-Jones trio could really be something to behold. You painted a nice picture of that that’s awfully tempting.
No advance is possible without taking risks, and the Seahawks will have to pay down the road. Not to break news here, but Wilson gets older and a tad bit slower each year.
Brees was also older and slower yearly, and he didn’t start out fast by any means. To say nothing of Brady. Wilson has plenty of tread still on the tires.
Wilson will be good for years, but neither Brees nor Brady used speed as a weapon to help make him harder to defend. His 4Q scrambles for first downs are huge blows to tiring defenders.
Jones is another in the long line of talented wide receiver drama-divas. He would not be the first, or the second option, and he wants the ball. Would he really be worth the headaches? Didn’t the Seahawks just draft a third receiver?
If you talk to anyone in Atlanta, the “diva” argument will get dispelled real quick.
I agree with you, Chris. Far as I’ve heard, Jones is not a diva, although I get why he’s stymied in ATL. The Seahawks will have some issues with divvying up the ball. But if the choice is between not sharing and not having, I think I know which way the 12s are voting.
My BIL lives in ATL. I talk to him.
I love that the Seahawks try like hell to win every year, as do the other NFC west teams. I wish the Mariners shared some of that urgency. give Russ his weapons: sounds like fun!
You make a point, Brent, that all of us tend to take for granted: The Seahawks are always walking along the fence-tops. Yes, they occasionally fall into the neighbor’s trash cans, but the urgency is there to get back up.
The Mariners’ two moments of urgency were the crisis in ’95, and the big splash needed to justify the new ballpark in in ’01. Now they have the built-in MLB excuse of the years-long build-up.
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There is no doubt Julio Jones would be a positive addition to our offense, but does JJ improve our offense more than Gilmore would improve our defense? Also, JJ would slow down the development of several rookies.
Personally, I believe DK Metcalf is over-rated at this point, so if we can add JJ and then trade DK next year for oodles of draft picks we would come out ahead. So, I’m all in if that is the plan.
Define “over-rated.” How? Why? By whom?
Over-rated in that he is viewed as the second coming of X, Y, or Z and his current trade value is somewhere around 2 first rounders. I believe he is a great addition to the team, but not worth 2 first rounders. I suspect we won’t be able to re-sign him after his rookie years. Plus, I believe JJ is better than DK at a lower cost, so why not trade DK and replace him with JJ? With future draft capital, we could afford to get Gilmore as well. However, if it is Gilmore or JJ then I think Gilmore would add more wins to a season than JJ.
Metcalf will get top of WR market from SEA when his rookie deal is up, unless something unforeseen happens to him, Wilson or Carroll. No way does a trade now make sense.
Who’s saying Metcalf is the second coming of anyone? Why can’t he just be D.K. Metcalf? I actually had to put my drink down when I first read your comment about trading him, just to make sure I wasn’t seeing anything that wasn’t actually there.
When you can point out a WR on any other squad comparable to Metcalf in age/size/skill/cap hit, let me know. I’d REALLY like to know who that person is.
Putting your drink down? Does that happen often? :)
Would it slow the development of several unproven rookies (and other young players with negligible professional experience)?
Yes. Absolutely.
But are any of those younger players capable of tying opposing defenses into knots? Are any of them capable of making a defensive coordinator NOT put his best corner on DK and NOT “bracket” Lockett on every single play? If we are talking about the players on our current roster, the answer is a resounding NO.
Since Art brought up cars, let’s fashion your question a different way …
If you had a $5M supercar and a Mustang EV sitting in your garage, which one are you gonna drive when you want to put some distance between you and the rest of the world?
Right, it is not the DECIDING FACTOR, but it is a factor, and that’s all I am saying. We seem to have two or three UDFA WR’s one of whom will probably turn into a good to great veteran with some development. We don’t have such players in the DB room.
I agree with that perspective and am a HUGE fan of Cade Johnson. I’m also strongly in favor of swinging a trade for Stephon Gilmore to really lock down our roster reconstruction on defense. But I’m greedy and understand the salary cap extremely well – I want JS to get usboth players – Jones AND Gilmore.
Let’s look at this a different way …
The Seahawks’ Super Bowl “window” is closing. Adding Jones pries it open for 3 more years (even if he’s only half the player he was in Atlanta). Jones is under contract through 2023. Wilson is under contract through 2023. Lockett is under contract through 2025. Only DK has the “option” (theoretically) to leave before the end of the 2023 season and a franchise tag after the 2022 season (or a really expensive extension before then) keeps the core-4 together for 3 full seasons.
On defense, we have a unit that was historically awful at the beginning of last season but got better as it went along. But it got “better” against mostly bad competition. Then it lost its top 2 corners, a longtime starting linebacker, and its best (or at least most exoensive) defensive tackle. JS has done a fabulous job thus far this offseason but there is still plenty of concern about the defense – especially at outside corner.
Gilmore might end up being a 1-year rental but would also be worth tagging next offseason if (a) he regains his status as one of the league’s best corners (which is likely since he’s only one year removed from winning the DPOY award), and (b) isn’t signed to an extension before then.
In my book, proven players trump draft picks if you’re in “win now” mode. And the Seahawks are either in win-now mode or right on the cusp of it. It’s the right time AND the right circumstances to push their chips in. Either of the moves could transform one unit, but both moves transform the entire team.
Gilmore would be a big upgrade, but that’s not the either-or choice of the moment. Keep in mind that adding an offensive playmaker keeps Wilson from wandering off.
Absolutely agree. That was my first comment actually. If Seattle wants Wilson to stay long-term, trading for Jones is THE MOVE to make, almost regardless of cost.
Agreed, if we can get both without spending enormous draft capital we would have no excuse for losing. We become a power team with SB as probable instead of possible.
Swain, Ursua and the other WRs are like Moore was — just guys. Every team needs them, and some get second contracts, They’re replaceable. Metcalf is not, no matter his cost.
Not buying the over-rated claim. Of course he has had drops, and he gets drawn into trash-talking to the point of distraction. But it wasn’t his fault the Seahawks had no answers for two-high safeties.
I like your comparison to heated leather seats, because that’s what he is. If they can get him for the right price, fantastic! If they can’t afford it, they still have one of the best receiving duos in the game.
The trick, as you point out, is the price. I think ATL will throw out via agents rumors of other offers to gin up the market, and the Seahawks will feel the pressure from Wilson to get in Jones what Brady got in Antonio Brown.
My only question is: What happens if his hammy is a recurring problem and he’s a bust due to health? Is Seattle on the hook for his 2022 salary regardless? All the other arguments against Jones fade away due to the ‘win now’ mentality the Hawks have clearly adopted.
His $15.3M salary this year is fully guaranteed. Next year, only $2M of his $11.513M salary is guaranteed. In 2023, none of his $11.513M salary is guaranteed.
Best case: You get 3 years from a first-ballot HOF wideout who can mentor Seattle’s next (potential) first-ballot HOF wideout while helping the Hawks terrorize the NFL for the bargain price of $38.526M.
Worst case: You spend $17.3M with little to show for it.
Well worth the risk in my book since best case is more I likely than worst case.
Seahawks and Jones can also agree to an extension to lower the cap hit in 21 in exchange for more guaranteed cash in 22-23. A risk? Yes. But it’s all about the moment with the Seahawks.
Chris below spells out the money risks accurately.
Regarding health, any 11-season NFL veteran has chronic injury issues. Ask Duane Brown. Carroll can tell Jones what AZ told Fitzgerald: Come here and your career will be lengthened because you won’t have to be the big dawg every game.
Do the heated seats recline? Important distinction
Of course. Seahawks are large people.
If the Hawks want Wilson to stick around long-term, and especially if they don’t want this offseason’s drama cranked up to 11 next offseason, doing whatever it takes to land Julio Jones isTHE MOVE that best assures that.
As Art mentioned, the $$ is workable and there’s precedent for quality receivers playing well in their mid-30s. That means it’s just a case of making the best offer for him. JS needs to get this done – even if it takes our 2023 R1 to do it
I think the Seahawks would do 23 R1. But the Falcons are undoubtedly holding out to see if anyone parts with 22 R1. My guess is someone will get that desperate.
Would be a great addition, but why are we talking about Jones while Jamal Adams is still twirling in the wind? The Seahawks will have pissed away a lot of draft capital if Adams isn’t re-signed. Giving away further draft picks without getting Adams in the boat first is stupid in my opinion. But I’m not running the show.
The Seahawks want to extend Adams, but to do that and add Jones probably will require Wilson or Wagner to convert salary to a signing bonus, which can be done, but complicates the future. Adams is under contract for the coming season, so there’s not a burning need to get it done in June. Players report to camp starting July 27.
best anaysis I’ve seen so far! Well Done Art!
Thanks.
Percy Harvin may still be available. Hey, he’s only a year older than Julio.
Been there. Done that.
If Julio gets the SeaHawks a Super Bowl victory, two thumbs up. If we get into the play offs and get bounced out early, thanks for the thrills. The legacy of one and done play offs must end.
No clash with the Titans.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/31577241/atlanta-falcons-expected-trade-julio-jones-tennessee-titans-next-24-48-hours-sources-say
It was fun to speculate while it lasted!